Lucky Lucky Blackjack
It's taken North America by storm, and now it's crossing the ocean to let you experience the excitement! Lucky Lucky Blackjack gives you the option to place a side bet, adding even more fun to the usual Blackjack buzz.
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Lucky Lucky Blackjack Sidebet (+EV)
Well, here’s another massively countable side bet that some people might be interested in (advantage players, casino floor supervisors, and the game publisher), but that I’ll never play. I think after this one, designers will know to check their games for vulnerabilities, especially when there’s oversized items in the paytable. And we’ll remember, “It’s not a sucker bet if the count is good.”
Lucky Lucky Blackjack Rules
Again, Eliot Jacobson pointed this one out to me. (But, if Barona had this side bet, I’d have already looked at it.)
The Lucky Lucky blackjack side bet is played with your first two dealt cards, and the dealer upcard. On these three cards, you get paid for various ways to make 21, and for any 20 and 19 total. The most countable version of this side bet is for the double-deck version with the paytable below. The game is also countable for the 6 deck shoe game, but it’s only 60% as profitable.
| Hand | Frequency | Probability | Payout | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| suited 678 | 32 | 1.757238E-4 | 100 | 0.01757238 |
| 777 | 56 | 3.075166E-4 | 50 | 0.01537583 |
| other 678 | 480 | 0.00263586 | 30 | 0.07907569 |
| suited 21 | 936 | 0.00513992 | 15 | 0.07709880 |
| other 21 | 14904 | 0.08184334 | 3 | 0.24553003 |
| any 20 | 13792 | 0.07573694 | 2 | 0.15147388 |
| any 19 | 13344 | 0.07327680 | 2 | 0.14655362 |
| others | 138560 | 0.76088389 | -1 | 0.76088389 |
| total | 182,104 | 1.00000000 | -0.02820366 |
As usual, I program a function that tells me the EV for any given shoe composition. Then I simulate millions of hands, calculating the ideal EV of the side bet at the beginning of each hand. I sum up the times when the side bet is +EV, and find the average +EV bet and +EV frequency. For the double-deck Lucky Lucky, I got
Lucky Lucky Blackjack Side Bet
which is not a practical counting scheme, but the theoretical limit if you used a computer that took into account all info (suits, etc.).
Then I calculated the Effect-of-Removal (EORs) of a given card on the EV, in order to make counting tags. (Outside the gambling world, people would call “EORs” sensitivities, and “tags” coefficients.)
| Card | EOR | Tag |
|---|---|---|
| Deuce | +0.007853 | +1 |
| Trey | +0.006066 | +1 |
| Four | +0.004099 | +1 |
| Five | +0.003171 | 0 |
| Six | -0.010422 | -2 |
| Seven | -0.017270 | -2 |
| Eight | -0.012616 | -2 |
| Nine | +0.002515 | 0 |
| Ten/Face | +0.006270 | +1 |
| Ace | -0.008477 | -1 |
So, setting the trueCount threshold to 2.4 (bet Lucky Lucky when the trueCount is >= 2.4), you get the practical results in double deck:
6 Deck Shoe Version
Lucky Ladies Blackjack Odds
The 6 deck shoe paytable is better than the double deck version, as it pays 200:1 for a suited 777. The EORs are similar, and I came up with the same count tags as the double deck game. Using a trueCount threshold of 2.1, the practical counting scheme yields:
which is only 61% of the profit rate as the double-deck game.